The call of election announcement has arrived in Delhi. Voting will be held on 5th February and results will be declared on Saturday 8th February. On the politics of freebies in the states of the country including Delhi, the Supreme Court has said that ‘the money is for freebies and not for the salary and pension of the judges’. On the day of announcement of Delhi elections, the Supreme Court has made a strict comment while hearing a case. In every election in the country, there are promises of cash, scooter, laptop, bicycle and free electricity and water. In such a situation, today the Supreme Court had to say something strict.
What did SC say on freebies?
The Supreme Court said, ‘The money is for freebies and not for the salary and pension of judges.’ This comment will be remembered in future also. A bench of the Supreme Court has criticized the state governments for delaying the salaries of judges. The court said that the state has money for election promises, but the salary related claims of the judges are said to be a financial crisis. Commenting on the promises being made in the Delhi elections, the Supreme Court also said that ‘some are talking of giving Rs 2100 and some Rs 2500.’
In fact, the All India Judges Association had filed a petition in the Supreme Court in 2015 regarding the salary and retirement benefits of the judges, while hearing which, the bench of Justice BR Gavai and Justice AG Masih made this comment today.
Delhi becomes a challenge for BJP
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP has won many politically challenged states in the country. Only one Delhi is left, where voting will be held on 70 assembly seats on 5th February and the result will come on 8th February. If we look at the politics of the last 26 years, BJP won the country’s Lok Sabha elections four times in 1999, 2014, 2019, 2024 but did not win in Delhi. If we look at the states bordering Delhi, BJP has formed the government in Uttar Pradesh thrice in the last 26 years, out of which the government has been formed twice in Uttar Pradesh during the Modi rule.
Within 26 years, BJP has formed the government in Haryana for the third consecutive time but the door to Delhi has not opened yet. BJP wins all the seven seats of Delhi Lok Sabha for three consecutive times but every time within ten months BJP is unable to win the Delhi Assembly elections. After losing the elections in Delhi six times in a row, BJP is entering the fray with the intention of winning it for the seventh time.
1993 assembly elections
The year 1993 was the year when BJP won its first and last assembly elections in Delhi. BJP won 49 seats and Madanlal Khurana became the first Chief Minister of Delhi. On 22 February 1996, Madanlal Khurana, the first Chief Minister of BJP in Delhi, resigned on the allegation of writing his name in the diary of hawala businessman Surendra Jain, while Madanlal Khurana was later acquitted of the same charge.
Then Sahib Singh Verma became the Chief Minister, but on 12 October 1998, a demonstration took place outside the Chief Minister’s residence in Delhi on the price rise of onion. The price of onion had then crossed Rs 60 per kg. CM Sahib Singh Verma passed away from the protesting people in a DTC bus. Onion inflation forced Sahib Singh Verma to resign two months before the elections.
50 days before the next assembly elections, Sushma Swaraj took over as the third Chief Minister in the first BJP government. BJP, which had made three Chief Ministers in five years between 1993-1998, is now again trying to make its own Chief Minister in Delhi for 26 years. Narendra Modi himself has made the first attempt in this after achieving the first landslide victory in the country’s elections ten years ago.
Delhi’s mood changes in a few months
During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there was a storm in the name of Modi in Delhi. But within ten months of the Lok Sabha elections, the mood of the people of Delhi changes for Kejriwal in the assembly elections, just as they vote in the name of Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha. In 2014 Lok Sabha, BJP gets 46 percent votes in Delhi and gets seven Lok Sabha seats. But in the 2015 assembly elections, BJP’s vote comes down to 32% and Kejriwal’s party’s vote goes from 33 to 54%.
This is seen in 2019-20 when BJP gets 57 percent votes in Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections but within ten months it comes down to 39 percent in the Assembly elections. Aam Aadmi Party reaches 54 percent from 18 percent. Now in 2024-25, it has to be seen whether Delhi, which has given 54 percent votes to BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, will follow the old trend in the assembly elections or will the political history change this time?
Delhi’s door has not opened yet
Be it the elections of the country or of most of the states, this trend has been seen in the last ten years that voters have been voting for BJP in the name of Narendra Modi. States like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Odisha are also examples of the fact that BJP started winning even where victory had not been tasted for decades, then what is it in Delhi that the closed door of victory has not opened till now? Is the reason for this that Kejriwal’s face remains clear on his claim for the post of CM in Delhi but BJP and Congress do not put forward their main contenders in Delhi?
AAP adopts BJP’s formula in assembly elections
In 2015, BJP fielded Kiran Bedi as its CM contender and the result was that it was limited to only three seats. After this, again in 2020, BJP did not declare its face for the post of CM. The slogan ‘change the country, now change Delhi’ was raised. Kejriwal kept asking, tell me who is the face of BJP? Again in 2020, Delhi voted in the name and face of Kejriwal and gave 62 seats to AAP and 8 seats to BJP. Congress account was not opened twice in a row. Now for the third time, when the date of voting has come in Delhi on 5th February, first pay attention to the campaign song of BJP.
The Prime Minister’s face is in the campaign song. In the social media post of BJP President JP Nadda, there is an appeal to make Delhi developed and then there is talk of PM Modi’s guidance. At the same time, Aam Aadmi Party has launched a campaign song in the name of Kejriwal to contest elections again. Actually, Arvind Kejriwal uses the same strategy against BJP in Delhi, which BJP uses in Lok Sabha elections by asking who will face Narendra Modi, if the opposition should tell first and then the benefit BJP gets in the name of Modi, Aam Aadmi Party has been getting the same benefit in Delhi till now.
CSDS data shows that four out of every ten voters who admired Narendra Modi’s work in the 2020 assembly elections later voted for Arvind Kejriwal because they like Modi as PM but not as CM. Kejriwal’s face was clearly visible. When Kejriwal asks for a CM leader from BJP in the Delhi elections, the Prime Minister himself directly attacks and questions the policy, decisions and loyalty of the Aam Aadmi Party.
Decrease in pro-incumbency vote and allegations of corruption
It is true that the biggest leaders of the party that emerged from the movement against corruption are currently facing corruption charges and three of them, Kejriwal himself, Sisodia and Sanjay Singh are out on bail. But the question is, can history change this time because of this? Whereas in the 2020 assembly elections, this data of CSDS shows that among those who voted for BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha, one-third voted for AAP in the assembly. During the survey in the assembly elections in many states of the country between 2010 and 2020, on the question of pro-incumbency i.e. pro-incumbency wave, the maximum of 68 percent claimed in the last election that they wanted Kejriwal to win again.
This means that it is important to pay attention to those swing voters who like Modi in the Lok Sabha and go to Kejriwal in the Assembly and compared to these two factors, now Kejriwal has been in power for ten years. There may be a decrease in pro-incumbency votes. There are allegations of corruption. Now AAP is in power in MCD also, that is, the edge which Kejriwal has been getting earlier, if something happens then there can be a change in Delhi?
Congress in mood to give tough competition to AAP
Will BJP win Delhi only if the contest is triangular? Will BJP be able to close the gap of power in Delhi which has lasted for more than two years only if Congress fights strongly? To answer these two questions, pay attention to the data. In the elections from 1993 to 2020, there were two elections in 1993 and 2013 when BJP’s performance improved. In 1993, BJP was able to form the government by winning 49 seats only when the contest in Delhi was triangular.
In 1993, there was a clash between BJP, Congress and Janata Dal. The vote was divided and BJP got power. Again in 2013, when there was a triangular contest between BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party, BJP was able to become the largest party, but after this, the votes of Congress always kept slipping towards Kejriwal’s party. With this, Kejriwal kept winning elections continuously. Now the answer to the second question is, will Congress fight the elections strong, only then the vote-seats of Aam Aadmi Party can decrease and BJP can get the benefit.
When Congress fielded Sandeep Dikshit, son of former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, against Arvind Kejriwal on the New Delhi seat, the Aam Aadmi Party started raising questions. Congress has fielded Alka Lamba against Atishi on Kalka ji seat. When BJP candidate Ramesh Bidhuri gave a controversial statement, Atishi shed tears but the Congress leader did not give any emotion to Atishi.
Then in Delhi, compared to Arvind Kejriwal’s promise of giving Rs 2100 per month to women, Congress’s promise of giving Rs 2500 per month to women. These are some of the political signs in Delhi elections which indicate that this time Congress does not want to leave the field to Kejriwal just like that. In such a situation, the question is who will benefit.
