The political temperature of Maharashtra Assembly elections is at its peak. Voting is over and now all eyes are on the results to be declared on 23rd. To know in whose favor the people of Maharashtra have given the verdict, all the political parties are busy in their calculations and estimates. This time, mainly Mahayuti (Bharatiya Janata Party, Shiv Sena-Shinde faction, and NCP-Ajit Pawar faction) and Mahavikas Aghadi (Shiv Sena-Uddhav faction, NCP-Sharad Pawar faction, and Congress) have been face to face in the election riot.
Four scenes are being made in Maharashtra
Now voting is done. The fate has been sealed in the ballot box and this box will now open only on 23rd November, but before that, the kind of atmosphere created in Maharashtra during the entire election period and the facts that have come to light, four scenarios are being created. These scenarios are being created by the claims of political parties, promises made by them while seeking votes, attractive schemes and public issues. Let us take a look at the possibilities arising on all these grounds-
Mahayuti made this election claim
Mahayuti has claimed that it has got benefits from Ladli Behan Yojana. In this election, Mahayuti put forward three big issues before the public. Mahayuti has capitalized on Ladli Behan Yojana as its strength in the elections. The announcement of depositing money directly into the accounts of women under this scheme has come as a big deal.
Apart from this, Mahayuti described its organizational structure as strong and rejected the claims of differences. The leadership of Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis has also emerged as a major strength of Mahayuti in the elections. Many journalists also claim that Eknath Shinde has strengthened his image. His work was appreciated among the people, and hardly anyone questioned his leadership. Ajit Pawar, who is often seen as a leader with a serious image, tried to soften his image this time. The use of pink color and their changed body language testifies to this.
Mahavikas Aghadi:
Now let us look at Mahavikas Aghadi, which tried to seek sympathy and resorted to local issues. On the other hand, Mahavikas Aghadi is trying to capitalize on sympathy votes and local issues. Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar faction sought sympathy votes by accusing BJP of breaking their parties. At the same time, local issues like rising inflation and Maratha reservation movement were also put forward as election issues.
As part of the election strategy, Aghadi has fielded such candidates who can harm BJP and, analysts believe that Mahavikas Aghadi can get advantage on the issues of inflation and farmers in urban and rural areas along with sympathy votes. Is.
hung assembly likely
If both the alliances fail to get a clear majority, then a hung assembly situation may arise in Maharashtra. In this situation, small parties and independent candidates will have the keys to power. Parties like Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, AIMIM, and MNS can become small but effective players. Independent candidates, whose number may exceed 30, will play an important role in forming the government.
Modi-Shah factor and effect of Lok Sabha
The pair of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah plays an important role in every election. The effect of his election machinery was also seen in Maharashtra. Analysts say that if Mahayuti wins, the credit for it will go to the changed strategy of Modi-Shah and the strong network of the organization. However, some of the BJP’s slogans, such as “400 paar” and “Batenge to katenge”, became weapons for the opposition. The opposition publicized these slogans as a constitutional changing and divisive agenda, which became a topic of discussion among the public.
importance of local issues
This time, local issues, such as farmers’ problems, Maratha reservation movement, and rising inflation, became prominent in the elections. Mahavikas Aghadi raised these issues loudly. Dissatisfaction of farmers: The announcement of relief measures for farmers by the state government just before the elections was termed by the opposition as an election stunt. The opposition cornered the government on inflation and made it a part of the election agenda. Along with this, the phase of allegations and counter-allegations also remained at its peak in the election environment. Mahavikas Aghadi called Ladli Behan Yojana an attempt to woo women voters and termed it inadequate. At the same time, Mahayuti has raised questions on the opposition regarding the respect of women.
The role of independents can be important
Political experts say that no alliance seems to be in a position to form a government with a clear majority in this election. If a hung assembly is formed, the role of small parties and independents will be important. The results coming on 23rd will decide which alliance will hoist its flag in Maharashtra politics. But one thing is certain, this election will not only depend on the strength of the alliances but also on the local issues and image of the leaders.
Scene 1: Total Seats- 288
Majority for Mahayuti – 145 (if Mahayuti government is formed)
Reason- Laadli sister issue became a game changer, hoisting of NDA flag in urban areas, mutual coordination between NDA parties, compensation for losses in Marathwada and Vidarbha.
Scene 2: Mahavikas Aghadi gets majority – 145 (if Mahavikas Aghadi forms the government)
Reason: Lok Sabha’s attitude was also visible in the Assembly, sympathy votes for Uddhav and Sharad Pawar factions, voters rejected the politics of manipulation, Aghadi’s coordination was successful in snatching Mahayuti’s votes, rising inflation overpowered Laadli Behan, Mahayuti was defeated by Marathas. loss due to reservation movement
Scene 3: Hung Assembly
Reason – Both the alliances were not successful on their own, the key to power was in the hands of 30+ independents and small parties, seats of VBA, MNS, AIMIM complicated the alliance, NDA was successful in urban and MVA in rural areas, rebels increased both. party trouble,
Scene-4: Complicated results, both alliances
Reason – Independent candidates and small parties will become important players after the results, parties like VBA and AIMIM performed better than expected, 2019-like situation in Maharashtra government formation again, possibility of President’s rule in the state.
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