Donald Trump’s return to the White House has raised the world’s interest in the US foreign policy. As soon as Trump arrived, many executive orders signed, which are being speculated that his policy of the Middle East will change, especially with Iran’s nuclear program. Trump’s second term is a chance to redefine the US-Iran relationship. Its need has increased further because tension is increasing due to Iran’s growing nuclear capacity.
Old nuclear agreement between America-Iran
In May 2018, during his first term, Trump lifted America from the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump described the agreement as a unilateral agreement. As soon as he was out of the agreement, Trump intensified his pressure strategy on Iran which included 12 demands. Most of those demands were not only related to the nuclear deal but they were related to the regional activities of Iran. Trump had demanded his support for groups like Hizbullah and Hamas, military intervention in Iraq and Yemen and a ban on his ballistic missile program.
The Biden administration which tried to restore the nuclear deal with Iran but Iran imposed three conditions to return to the deal. Iran had said that the US should first accept that its move from the agreement was unfair, remove all the restrictions imposed on it and guarantee that in future the US will never unilaterally out of the agreement. America did not agree on these terms of Iran, due to which the agreement between the two countries could not be restored.
What is the situation now
In the last four years, Iran has upgraded its nuclear enhancement to a great extent. On January 22, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Gossi said Iran is moving very fast to enrich its uranium close to weapons grade.
According to the November 2024 IAEA report, Iran’s total rich uranium reserves were 6,604 kg, out of which Iran had estimated 182.3 kg of uranium to 60 percent purity. According to the definition of IAEA, about 42 kg of uranium is enough for a atomic bomb, which is enhanced by 60 percent. To make atomic bombs, uranium is required to be more than 90 percent of it and Iran is moving a lot in this direction. Iran already has a promotional uranium required to make four atomic bombs.
Another report from IAEA of December 2024 indicates that Iran is establishing a 60 percent of the ability to make weapons-grade uranium under the guise of making highly highly promoted uranium. The report said that Iran may probably produce arms-grade uranium without using its current stock. If this is true, then it is a danger.
Meanwhile, another aspect should be considered: in the last 15 months, and especially from April 2024, Iran has repeatedly shocked the Gaza war. Its regional strategy of fighting Israel through proxy groups has collapsed and its economy is going downwards.
Apart from this, the country is also in a period of political criticality due to the death of President RaiC in May 2024, as well as uncertainty about the succession of supreme leader Ali Hosaini Khamenei. Khamenei is 85 years old and is going through poor health.
In this weak situation, the nuclear program is the only means of dealing with the US with Iran and hence it will not return to an agreement without any concrete assurance from the international community.
what are the options?
Trump’s withdrawal has resurrected the danger of maximum pressure strategy on Iran. However, Trump has indicated a desire to pursue diplomacy. In an interview recently, he emphasized that his first concern is to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
Similarly, Iranian officials have also shown interest in the conversation. On January 13, the meeting with European partners in Geneva has been described by Iranian officials as “serious, clear and creative”. In view of this, it is expected that both sides want to give a chance to the conversation. In such a situation, what will be the new nuclear agreement between the US and Iran?
How will the new agreement be?
The nuclear deal between the US and Iran in July 2015 imposed strict restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. In the restrictions, Iran could run only 5,000 first generation IR-1 centrifuge to enhance uranium. He could only enhance uranium up to 3.67 percent. All uranium rich in up to 20 percent was to be destroyed or sent out, its heavy water in Arak was to destroy the main part of the plant and the biggest thing was that Iran was “anywhere, of its nuclear facilities” Anytime “IAEA had agreed to inspection.
But this agreement was canceled in May 2018. In addition, some major provisions of the original agreement, such as the ban on using the first generation of centrifuge (IR-1) for uranium enhancement on Iran, are scheduled to end in 2025 under the “Sunset Claus” in 2025. Some other sections are applicable by 2030, such as a ban on uranium enrichment up to 3.67 percent purity and a range of 300 kg on its rich uranium reserves.
To negotiate any new agreement, these terms of the agreement will have to be re -interacted. The terms of the nuclear deal in Iran 2015, which agreed, is unlikely that it will again agree on those terms. Then what is the way?
The US will have to talk on a new border in a new negotiation of the nuclear deal, on which Iran will limit its nuclear program. Currently the danger, as IAEA has reported, is from 60 percent of purity from uranium. Iran may be forced to stop the promotion of uranium up to 60 percent and to hand over the pre -enriched reserves to a neutral agency.
For any agreement, Iran will have to open its nuclear labs and sites for IAEA inspectors and permission to monitor the promotion through cameras etc. Also, a written assurance has to be given that Iran does not want nuclear weapons.
In turn, Iran will demand withdrawing economic sanctions and a “concrete” assurance that the US will not cancel the agreement in the future. Also, it can also demand that the rest of the issues related to the nuclear issue such as a ballistic missile program will be excluded from the talks.
America can work keeping in mind some concerns of Iran and perhaps it has changed the red line fixed for Iran. Recently, while talking to Fox News, Trump clearly said this, ‘I just said that he cannot have nuclear weapons.’
In addition, the inclusion of regional stakeholders such as Saudi Arabia, UAE or Egypt in the process of interactions can increase the credibility of the agreement and solve comprehensive regional safety concerns. These countries, directly affected by Iran’s actions, can prove to be helpful in ensuring following the nuclear agreement.
If the deal is not done then the deadlock will run between Iran-America
If there is no compromise between the US and Iran, then a long deadlock can arise between the two countries. In the last decades, Iran has tried to thwart American sanctions. It has also been successful to a large extent in this by increasing the relationship with colleagues like Russia and China. If America keeps banning Iran for a long time, then it will also increase domestic support for Iranian rule, which can weaken the objectives of America.
The US has tried to change power in Iran many times through economic pressure, but this strategy has been ineffective. This is because the leadership of Iran has maintained power despite internal and external challenges.
Military attack on Iran’s nuclear plants is a controversial option. However, Israel has been advocating it. But targeting Iran’s nuclear plants is not an easy task because they are very strong, buried under the mountains and their safety is quite strong, which is very less likely to damage them from missiles or air strikes.
If Iran’s atomic plants are attacked, it will be a red line for Iran that can incite Iran to intensify its nuclear program. With this, Iran can go towards making nuclear weapons within a few weeks. Such results will change the safety landscape of the area to a great extent, which will have a widespread impact on global stability.
In a unstable and turbulent region like the Middle East, where the 15 -month war in Gaza has changed the regional safety landscape forever, Trump’s next four years and opportunity cannot be allowed to be wasted in deadlock.
(Author: Colonel Rajiv Aggarwal (retired). In his 30 -year career, Rajiv Aggarwal has played important roles other than Director and Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.)
